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Trading Expectancy Calculator

If you ran this system 1,000 more times, what would the average trade pay you?

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tools.results

Expected value per trade$52.50
Expected total result$5,250.00

tools.whatItDoes

Enter win rate, average win, and average loss. The calculator returns the expected value per trade and, if you give a number of trades, the expected result over that sample.

tools.howToUse

  1. Enter win rate as a percentage (0–100).
  2. Enter the average winning trade and average losing trade.
  3. Optionally enter a number of trades to see expected total result.
  4. Read expected value per trade.

tools.formula

Loss Rate = 1 − Win Rate
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss)

tools.example

Win rate 45%, average win $300, average loss $150. Expectancy = 0.45 × 300 − 0.55 × 150 = $52.50 per trade. Over 100 trades, expected total ≈ $5,250.

tools.commonMistakes

  • Using a tiny sample of trades to compute averages.
  • Forgetting fees and slippage.
  • Confusing positive expectancy with guaranteed profit on the next trade.
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tools.faqHeading

What is good expectancy?add

Any positive number is an edge before costs, but variance is real. A small per-trade expectancy still requires many trades to materialize statistically.

How many trades does it take to be confident?add

Educators commonly cite 100+ trades as a starting sample. Smaller samples are noisy.

Does negative expectancy mean stop trading?add

It means either your geometry, your selection, or your execution needs work. Continuing without changes will compound the loss.

Is this advice?add

No. ChartsQuest does not provide trading advice — this is an educational arithmetic tool.

Do I need an account?add

No, the tool is free and works without signing in.

tools.disclaimer